Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is a complex neurodevelopmental disorder with increasing global prevalence but a lack of reliable diagnostic biomarkers. Emerging evidence suggests that immune dysregulation, gut-brain axis dysfunction, and increased intestinal permeability play key roles in ASD pathophysiology. This study investigated the combined diagnostic value of ADAM10 and cytokines (IL-10, IL-22, IL-17 A, and IL-17D). Multivariable logistic regression produces an improved ROC curve that improves diagnostic accuracy over individual markers by combining numerous predictors into a single risk score (linear predictor). The technique, which frequently raises individual marker AUCs, entails modelling a binary result, calculating the probability, and visualizing ROC based on the projected probabilities. In this case-control study, plasma levels of ADAM10, IL-10, IL-22, IL-17 A, and IL-17D were measured in 37 male children with ASD and 37 age-matched controls. Group comparisons, correlation analyses, and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analyses, including combined ROC models, were performed. ADAM10, IL-22, and IL-17 A levels were significantly reduced in children with ASD compared to controls, whereas IL-10 and IL-17D showed no significant differences. ADAM10, IL-17 A, and IL-22 demonstrated good diagnostic performance, with AUC values of 0.886, 0.855, and 0.812, respectively. In contrast, IL-10 and IL-17D showed poor discriminatory ability, with AUC values of 0.524 and 0.599, respectively. Combined ROC analysis markedly improved diagnostic accuracy, with all panels including ADAM10 achieving AUC values above 0.90, and some reaching as high as 0.988, with high sensitivity and specificity. The combination of ADAM10 with selected cytokines significantly enhances diagnostic performance compared to individual markers, supporting a link between immune dysregulation, barrier dysfunction, and gut permeability in ASD.
