The American journal of clinical nutritionNov 16, 2012

Drinking caffeinated and caffeine-free drinks and the risk of type 2 diabetes

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Updated Feb 11, 2026

Abstract

A total of 7370 new cases of type 2 diabetes (T2D) were documented among 74,749 women and 2865 cases among 39,059 men over the follow-up periods.

Consumption of caffeinated and caffeine-free sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) was linked to a higher risk of T2D, with risk ratios (RR) of 13% and 11% per serving, respectively, in women and 16% and 23% in men.
Caffeine-free artificially sweetened beverages (ASBs) were associated with a 6% increased risk of T2D per serving among women.
Both caffeinated and decaffeinated coffee showed a protective association against T2D, with RRs of 8% for both types in women and 4% for caffeinated and 7% for decaffeinated coffee in men.
Caffeinated tea was also associated with a lower risk of T2D among women, with an RR of 5% per serving.
Overall, SSB intake was associated with a higher risk of T2D regardless of caffeine content, while coffee consumption was associated with a lower risk.

Simplified

BACKGROUND: Consumption of caffeinated beverages such as coffee and tea has been associated with a lower risk of type 2 diabetes (T2D). Paradoxically, short-term metabolic studies have shown that caffeine impairs postprandial glycemic control.

OBJECTIVE: The objective was to prospectively examine the association of caffeinated compared with caffeine-free beverages, including coffee, tea, sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs), and carbonated artificially sweetened beverages (ASBs), with T2D risk.

DESIGN: We prospectively observed 74,749 women from the Nurses' Health Study (NHS, 1984-2008) and 39,059 men from the Health Professionals Follow-Up Study (HPFS, 1986-2008) who were free of diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, and cancer at baseline.

RESULTS: We documented 7370 incident cases of T2D during 24 y of follow-up in the NHS and 2865 new cases during 22 y of follow-up in the HPFS. After major lifestyle and dietary risk factors were controlled for, caffeinated and caffeine-free SSB intake was significantly associated with a higher risk of T2D in the NHS (RR per serving: 13% for caffeinated SSBs, 11% for caffeine-free SSBs; P < 0.05) and in the HPFS (RR per serving: 16% for caffeinated SSBs, 23% for caffeine-free SSBs; P < 0.01). Only caffeine-free ASB intake in NHS participants was associated with a higher risk of T2D (RR: 6% per serving; P < 0.001). Conversely, the consumption of caffeinated and decaffeinated coffee was associated with a lower risk of T2D [RR per serving: 8% for both caffeinated and decaffeinated coffee in the NHS (P < 0.0001) and 4% for caffeinated and 7% for decaffeinated coffee in the HPFS (P < 0.01)]. Only caffeinated tea was associated with a lower T2D risk among NHS participants (RR per serving: 5%; P < 0.0001).

CONCLUSION: Irrespective of the caffeine content, SSB intake was associated with a higher risk of T2D, and coffee intake was associated with a lower risk of T2D.

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Drinking caffeinated and caffeine-free drinks and the risk of type 2 diabetes

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