American journal of preventive cardiologyApr 20, 2026

Blood markers of aging linked to heart disease risk: machine learning analysis in two groups

Longevity & Aging Weekly Brief ↗PubMed ↗DOI ↗

Updated Jun 27, 2026

Abstract

Essence

A blood-count-based aging score was associated with mortality and cardiovascular event risk beyond chronological age.

Evidence

This machine-learning cohort analysis trained HemeAge on 53,355 NHANES participants and applied it to 109,844 Houston Methodist CVD Registry patients, where accelerated delta age was linked to higher mortality (HR 3.05) and MACE (HR 1.37).

Caveat

The registry associations are observational, so HemeAge may improve risk stratification but does not prove that CBC-derived aging markers cause cardiovascular outcomes.

Simplified

BACKGROUND: Chronological age inadequately reflects aging variability and cardiovascular risk. Biological age derived from routine complete blood count (CBC) parameters may provide a more actionable marker.

OBJECTIVE: To develop a machine learning model of biological age using CBC data (HemeAge) and evaluate associations with mortality and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in two large cohorts.

METHODS: An XGBoost model was trained on 53,355 NHANES participants (1999-2010) to predict chronological age from CBC parameters. The model was applied to 109,844 Houston Methodist CVD Registry patients, generating "delta age" (predicted minus chronological age). Patients were classified as Resilient (delta < -10), Proportionate (-10 ≤ delta ≤ 10), or Accelerated (delta > 10). Cox models assessed mortality and MACE risk, adjusting for demographics and clinical factors.

RESULTS: Red cell distribution width, mean cell volume, and neutrophil count were key age predictors. Accelerated aging associated with increased mortality risk (HR 3.05, 95% CI 2.41-3.85) and MACE (HR 1.37, 95% CI 1.24-1.51) versus proportionate aging. Resilient aging conferred reduced risk for mortality (HR 0.59, 95% CI 0.52-0.68) and MACE (HR 0.76, 95% CI 0.72-0.81). Associations were strongest in midlife (ages 40-80) and for death and heart failure outcomes and persisted across age-stratified and continuous models.

CONCLUSIONS: HemeAge independently predicts mortality and cardiovascular risk beyond chronological age. These accessible hematologic markers may enhance risk stratification and inform targeted prevention strategies.