IMPORTANCE: There has been growing research into the mental health consequences of major disasters. Few studies have controlled for prospectively assessed mental health. This article describes a natural experiment in which 57% of a well-studied birth cohort was exposed to a major natural disaster (the Canterbury, New Zealand, earthquakes in 2010-2011), with the remainder living outside of the earthquake area.
OBJECTIVE: To examine the relationships between the extent of earthquake exposure and mental health outcomes following the earthquakes-net of adjustment for potentially confounding factors related to personal circumstances, prior mental health, and childhood family background.
DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Data were gathered from the Christchurch Health and Development Study, a 35-year longitudinal study of a birth cohort of New Zealand children (635 males and 630 females). This general community sample included 952 participants with available data on earthquake exposure and mental health outcomes at age 35 years.
EXPOSURES: A composite measure of exposure to the events during and subsequent to the 4 major (Richter Scale >6.0) Canterbury earthquakes during the years 2010-2011.
MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: DSM-IV symptom criteria for major depression; posttraumatic stress disorder; anxiety disorder; suicidal ideation/attempt; nicotine dependence; alcohol abuse/dependence; and illicit drug abuse/dependence. Outcomes were measured approximately 20 to 24 months after the onset of exposure to the earthquakes and were assessed using DSM-IV diagnostic criteria and measures of subclinical symptoms.
RESULTS: After covariate adjustment, cohort members with high levels of exposure to the earthquakes had rates of mental disorder that were 1.4 (95% CI, 1.1-1.7) times higher than those of cohort members not exposed. This increase was due to increases in the rates of major depression; posttraumatic stress disorder; other anxiety disorders; and nicotine dependence. Similar results were found using a measure of subclinical symptoms (incidence rate ratio, 1.4; 95% CI, 1.1-1.6). Estimates of attributable fraction suggested that exposure to the Canterbury earthquakes accounted for 10.8% to 13.3% of the overall rate of mental disorder in the cohort at age 35 years.
CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Following extensive control for prospectively measured confounding factors, exposure to the Canterbury earthquakes was associated with a small to moderate increase in the risk for common mental health problems.
