Development of a Novel Prognostic Model for Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma: Insights into Immune Cell Interactions and Drug Sensitivity

Apr 14, 2024Cancer investigation

New Model to Predict Outcomes in Esophageal Squamous Cell Cancer Linked to Immune Cell Interactions and Drug Response

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Abstract

A prognostic model based on 23 key genes shows a 3-year AUC of 0.967 for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC).

The model stratifies patients into risk groups, identifying high-risk individuals with poorer outcomes.
High-risk patients exhibit lower sensitivity to chemotherapy.
A correlation exists between risk scores and M2 macrophage infiltration.
Significant relationships were found with immune checkpoint genes, including SIGLEC15 and PDCD1LG2.
High-risk patients demonstrated lower Tumor Immune Dysfunction and Exclusion (TIDE) values, indicating potential benefit from immune checkpoint blockade therapy.

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Esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) presents a five-year survival rate below 20%, underscoring the need for improved prognostic markers. Our study analyzed ESCC-specific datasets to identify consistently differentially expressed genes. A Venn analysis followed by gene network interactions revealed 23 key genes, from which we built a prognostic model using the COX algorithm ( = 0.000245, 3-year AUC = 0.967). This model stratifies patients into risk groups, with high-risk individuals showing worse outcomes and lower chemotherapy sensitivity. Moreover, a link between risk scores and M2 macrophage infiltration, as well as significant correlations with immune checkpoint genes (e.g., SIGLEC15, PDCD1LG2, and HVCR2), was discovered. High-risk patients had lower Tumor Immune Dysfunction and Exclusion (TIDE) values, suggesting potential responsiveness to immune checkpoint blockade (ICB) therapy. Our efficient 23-gene prognostic model for ESCC indicates a dual utility in assessing prognosis and guiding therapeutic decisions, particularly in the context of ICB therapy for high-risk patients. p

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Development of a Novel Prognostic Model for Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma: Insights into Immune Cell Interactions and Drug Sensitivity

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