Sleep Propensity under Forced Desynchrony in a Model of Arousal State Dynamics

The revised model predicts sleep measures across forced desynchrony schedules with day lengths from 1.5 to 42.85 hours.

• A new nonlinear approach to modeling arousal states enhances predictions of sleep propensity based on circadian phase and prior wakefulness.
• The model accounts for a skewed circadian rhythm of alertness, peaking before biological night and minimizing towards the end of it.
• It provides a strong inhibitory input to sleep-active neurons in the evening, counteracting the homeostatic sleep drive.
• Predictions include total sleep time, sleep onset latency, wake/sleep ratio, and sleep efficiency across various experimental conditions.
• The model aims to improve understanding of sleep during normal circumstances and conditions like shift work and jetlag.

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