Field observations of the painted lady butterfly were nearly always predicted with high probability by previous .
The painted lady butterfly migrates between Europe and Africa, but its wintering grounds remain largely unknown.
Ecological niche modeling was used to predict suitable breeding areas in subhumid regions near the tropics from November to February.
Extensive field surveys and two-year monitoring were conducted in six countries to validate these predictions.
New breeding locations and year-round phenological data were documented during the study.
The precipitation seasonality regime was found to influence migratory phenology in the butterfly.
Simplified
Migratory insects are key players in ecosystem functioning and services, but their spatiotemporal distributions are typically poorly known. (ENM) may be used to predict species seasonal distributions, but the resulting hypotheses should eventually be validated by field data. The painted lady butterfly () performs multigenerational migrations between Europe and Africa and has become a model species for insect movement ecology. While the annual migration cycle of this species is well understood for Europe and northernmost Africa, it is still unknown where most individuals spend the winter. Through ENM, we previously predicted suitable breeding grounds in the subhumid regions near the tropics between November and February. In this work, we assess the suitability of these predictions through i) extensive field surveys and ii) two-year monitoring in six countries: a large-scale monitoring scheme to study butterfly migration in Africa. We document new breeding locations, year-round phenological information, and hostplant use. Field observations were nearly always predicted with high probability by the previous ENM, and monitoring demonstrated the influence of the precipitation seasonality regime on migratory phenology. Using the updated dataset, we built a refined ENM for the Palearctic-African range of. We confirm the relevance of the Afrotropical region and document the missing natural history pieces of the longest migratory cycle described in butterflies. Vanessa cardui V. cardui
Key numbers
99.18 ± 0.29%
High Probability of Breeding
Average probability of confirmed breeding at suitable pixels.
2,755 caterpillars and 1,198 adults
Caterpillar and Adult Counts
Total counts documented across monitored breeding sites.
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