BACKGROUND: Recent Food and Drug Administration approvals of glucagon-like peptide 1 (GLP-1) receptor agonists linked to substantial weight loss have generated interest in demand projections. However, a longitudinal analysis in a large, diverse, current, real-world database has not been published.
OBJECTIVES: The study objective was to determine user frequency of GLP-1 receptor agonist products overall and by type 2 diabetes (T2D), cardiovascular disease (CVD), and overweight or obese status. Secondary objective was monthly growth rate estimation by product since first appearance in University of California Health.
METHODS: This retrospective cohort study included patients who were dispensed a GLP-1 receptor agonist from 2014 to 2022 in the University of California Health Data Warehouse. Exponential growth rates were estimated using a log-linear regression model.
RESULTS: Between 2014 and 2018, only Trulicity and Victoza exceeded 5000 annual users. Ozempic users increased from 569 in 2019 to 7667 in 2020. Use accelerated with more than 13,310 users in 2021 to surpass Trulicity. Ozempic count was 22,891 in 2022. Wegovy rose from 989 in 2021 to 2992 in 2022. Mounjaro increased to 1508 users in 2022. Although generally similar trends were observed for T2D, CVD, and overweight or obese subgroups, the ascent of Ozempic as most frequently used was more apparent in the overweight or obese group. The monthly growth rates were 83.9% for Ozempic, 119.2% for Wegovy, 84.8% for Rybelsus, 53.3% for Saxenda, 12.9% for Adlyxin, 78.8% for Trulicity, and 254.3% for Mounjaro.
CONCLUSION: This first cohort study of weight loss-associated GLP-1 receptor agonists in a large, diverse, state-wide health system demonstrated a rapid increased use that represents a clear and likely durable transition in utilization for this category. Informed decision making and longitudinal studies are needed to ensure evidence-concordant prescribing and supply stability.
