NPJ vaccines

Self-amplifying COVID-19 mRNA vaccine boosts antibody function over time in a Phase 3 trial

Updated

Abstract

Essence

A self-amplifying COVID-19 mRNA booster was linked to more sustained, activating antibody functions than BNT162B2 in a Phase 3 trial subset.

Evidence

This post-hoc systems-serology analysis of Phase 3 trial participants compared ARCT-154 with BNT162B2 after prior mRNA vaccination and found sustained FcγRIIIA-binding antibodies and NK-cell activation against WT Spike and BA.5 Spike.

Caveat

The analysis was a subset-based post-hoc immune profiling study, so it supports antibody-function differences rather than direct clinical protection outcomes.

Simplified

Full Text

Introduction

The rapid development and deployment of effective mRNA vaccines against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) were instrumental in curbing the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. The mRNA vaccines encode for the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein (S-protein) to induce cellular and humoral immune responses. The vaccines elicited robust antibody titers, including neutralizing antibodies, to Spike that waned with time since immunization1–7. As the virus further adapted to its new human host, variants of concern (VOC) emerged that showed degrees of neutralizing antibody escape. This was most evident during the emergence of the Omicron lineage of SARS-CoV-28–15. To that end, vaccine boosters and updated vaccine compositions encoding for new emergent SARS-CoV-2 variants were utilized to restore waned immunity and expand breadth16–23.

Self-amplifying mRNA (sa-mRNA) vaccines encode a target immunogen along with an RNA-dependent RNA polymerase to allow for longer periods of antigen production24. This is commonly coupled with a decrease in the total mRNA dose required to induce immunity, thereby improving the deployment of mRNA vaccine technology. One such candidate, the sa-mRNA ARCT-154, was previously analyzed for safety, efficacy, and immunogenicity as a primary series and a booster dose. In the pivotal primary vaccination study, ARCT-154 produced higher and more durable neutralizing antibody response compared to the adenovirus vector-based vaccine, which translated into higher efficacy against symptomatic COVID-19 disease25. Separately, recipients who had previous mRNA immunizations were boosted with ARCT-154 and had higher antibody titers to the target Spike (WT Spike) and to the BA.4/5 Spike variant 28 days after immunization than the conventional mRNA comparator26, and this trend was sustained for up to 12-months post-boost27,28. Other preclinical-stage sa-mRNA vaccine candidates have also shown an ability to elicit immune responses at lower doses compared to conventional mRNA delivery platforms, further supporting the lower-cost, equitable distribution of the vaccines24.

While neutralizing antibodies are frequently assayed as a primary correlate of protection, effector functions of antibodies have been shown to play critical roles in protection against respiratory pathogens such as SARS-CoV-2 and influenza virus7,29–35. It has been shown that mRNA vaccines can elicit and boost both neutralizing and effector-driven antibodies, thereby providing a layered humoral protection strategy36–41. These effector functions are driven by engagement of the antibody Fc domain with Fc-receptors (FcR) on the surface of innate immune cells such as monocytes, neutrophils, and natural killer cells. Studies have shown that waned neutralizing and extra-neutralizing functions can be recalled and expanded through mRNA vaccine boosters against SARS-CoV-239,42–45.

In this post-hoc research study, we interrogate the antibody repertoire in a random subset of samples from the Phase III booster trial of recipients of the sa-mRNA ARCT-154 (also known as Kostaive) or mRNA BNT162B2 (also known as Comirnaty). Participants had received three doses of licensed mRNA COVID-19 vaccines before enrollment, and were randomized into two study groups. Serum collections were performed at day 1 (baseline, day of booster), day 29, day 91, day 181, and day 361 after the booster. Results of the primary study demonstrated noninferior neutralizing immune response against WT SARS-CoV-2 and superior responses against the Omicron BA.4/5 variant at 1 month post-booster dose, as well as an improved antibody persistence profile up to 12-months post vaccination of ARCT-154 versus BNT162b226–28. The main analyses of this post-hoc research were performed during the waning period (days 29-361) to quantify durability of antibody responses to the direct target (defined as WT Spike) and target-related Spikes (defined as Delta, BA.2, BA.5, XBB.1.5, and KP.3). The direct target and target-related humoral responses were compared to non-target control antigens such as influenza hemagglutinin (high-exposure rate antigen), human cytomegalovirus glycoprotein (high-exposure rate antigen), and Ebolavirus glycoprotein (low/negative exposure rate antigen). Our analysis revealed distinct humoral immune responses between the two vaccine groups, contributing to differences in the magnitude, durability, and breadth of effector and neutralizing antibody responses. Many of these distinctions persisted through the entirety of the observation period, up to day 361 post-boost. Notably, ARCT-154 recipients exhibited a unique humoral stimulation and waning rate compared to BNT162b2 recipients, both to the direct target (WT Spike) and target-related (Delta and Omicron Spikes). These findings underscore the divergent humoral immune profiles elicited by sa-mRNA and mRNA booster regimens and provide insight into how sustained humoral stimulation translates to immunity across SARS-CoV-2 variants.

Results

Humoral responses to mRNA and sa-mRNA vaccines are distinct for up to 180 days post-immunization

A phase III non-inferiority trial comparing responses to COVID-19 boosters was performed (26–28; see Methods), and a random subset of specimens were analyzed through systems serology. All participants had received a 2-dose primary vaccination series with mRNA COVID-19 vaccines and a booster dose of BNT162B2 vaccine at least three months before enrollment. Participants were randomized into two groups: those receiving a booster dose of BNT162b2 and those receiving a booster dose of the self-amplifying mRNA ARCT-15426–28. Blood draws were taken at day 1 (baseline, day of booster dose), day 29 post-boost, day 91 post-boost, day 181 post-boost, and day 361 post-boost.

Evaluation of Ig isotypes (IgG, IgA, IgM), subclasses (IgG1-4), and low-affinity Fc-gamma receptor binding (FcγR) antibodies to on-target (WT Spike), target-related (Delta Spike, BA.2 Spike, BA.5 Spike, XBB.1.5 Spike, and KP.3 Spike), and non-target (influenza H1N1 A/Wisconsin/22 hemagglutinin (HA), human cytomegalovirus (HCMV) Glycoprotein B (GB), and Ebolavirus Glycoprotein (GP)) controls was assessed (Fig. 1). Influenza H1N1 HA and HCMV GB served as consistency non-target controls, which should be present in the vast majority of participants, but not responsive to the boosters, while Ebola GP served as a non-target negative control. Additionally, antibody-dependent phagocytosis by monocytes (ADCP) and antibody-dependent natural killer cell activation (ADNKA) to target (WT), target-related (BA.5), and non-target (Ebola GP) were assessed. During the observation period of this clinical study, BA.5 was the predominant circulating SARS-CoV-2 strain.

Overall antibody binding and functional architecture revealed stimulation at 29 days post-vaccination for both study groups (BNT162B2 in red, ARCT-154 in blue) with responses waning thereafter. This stimulation and waning showed antibody isotype, subclass, and FcγR specificity, with not all features showing similar trends, as expected.

To identify if the overall antibody profile could be separated between the two boosted groups, we performed an exploratory partial least squares discriminant analysis (PLSDA) model of antibody binding. A least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regularization was used to down-select the number of antibody features for the PLSDA fit46,47 (see Methods). This was done for each draw during the observation period (Fig. 2A–D and Supplementary Fig. 1). No model could be built distinguishing recipients of BNT162B2 and ARCT-154 for day 1, indicating that baseline humoral profiles were not significant between groups. However, multivariate clustering through this method could statistically separate out vaccinated groups (BNT162B2 in red, ARCT-154 in blue) at days 29-, 91-, and 181-post-vaccination (for each, p < 0.04 between the model and random features, p < 0.02 between the model and permuted labels). A model could not be built, however, at 361 days post-boost (p = 0.1 between the model and random features, p = 0.07 between the model and permuted labels) (Fig. 2E–H).

The LASSO-selected features contributing to separation at the multivariate scale were plotted along latent variable axes 1 and 2 (LV1 and LV2, respectively). FcγR-binding antibody responses to target WT Spike were selected in the ARCT-154 recipients at each timepoint, while antibody binding features to Omicron lineages were selected in the BNT162B2 arm (Supplementary Fig.). These exploratory results suggested that the profiles were moving at distinctly different rates after the boost and before the end of the observation period. Also, even though ARCT-154 and BNT162B2 were directed to WT/D614G Spike, there were differences noted in the multivariate models. 1

Systems serology analysis of the ARCT-154-J01 boosting trial. Participants who had received two doses of licensed mRNA COVID-19 vaccines, and a third dose of BNT162B2 at least three months before the study recruitment, were randomly assigned to two treatment arms: receiving a booster dose of BNT162B2 (red block, left) or ARCT-154 (blue block, right). Blood draws were taken at baseline (day 1) and at days 29, 91, 181, and 361 post-boost. Shown are effector function and binding profiles in a scaled heatmap. Each column represents one participant within the designated treatment group at the indicated time, and each row is the humoral feature. On the left are the ordering for analytes for antibody-dependent cellular phagocytosis by monocytes (ADCP, top row), antibody-dependent natural killer cell activation (ADNKA, second row), and antibody binding (remaining rows). All outputs were z-scored across rows, and the scaling legend is shown on the right. Values in gray indicate that the readout did not pass quality control, meaning that replicate standard deviations exceeded 50% of the mean, or that values were not above our lower limit of quantitation (see Methods).

Recipients of the mRNA vaccine BNT162B2 and the sa-mRNA vaccine ARCT-154 generate distinct humoral profiles longitudinally. Probable least squares discriminant analysis (PLSDA) was used to identify clustering based on treatment groups on day 29. In red dots is the composite humoral profile (binding only) of recipients of BNT162B2, and in blue dots are recipients of ARCT-154. Multivariate separation is shown on latent variable (LV) axes 1 and 2. Ellipses indicate the 95% confidence intervals of the multivariate plotting of the group.Same as (), but for antibody binding profiles at day 91.Same as A, but for antibody binding profiles at day 181.. Same as (), but for antibody binding profiles at day 361.Validation of PLSDA and LASSO-selected features for A. The LASSO-selected features describing separation at the multivariate level were used to quantify model accuracy (left column). The model was then compared to one of random features (middle column) and permutated labels (right column).values are shown above the comparisons.Same as (), but for model performance of the LASSO PLSDA at day 91.Same as (), but for model performance of the LASSO PLSDA at day 181.Same as (), but for model performance of the LASSO PLSDA at day 361. A B A C D A E F E G E H E P

sa-mRNA vaccination yields a sustained stimulation to On- and related-targets

It was previously reported that recipients of the sa-mRNA vaccine ARCT-154 had a more durable neutralizing antibody phenotype compared to other mRNA-based vaccines27,28. Our data supported that rates of change to target and target-related Spikes between the two treatment arms may be driving separation at the multivariate level. We thus took the first derivative (d) of the collection periods to quantify how rates of change of antibody levels may differ between sa-mRNA and mRNA booster recipients. We were particularly interested in how activating FcγR-binding antibodies moved with time, given the previously reported difference in neutralization between an mRNA and a sa-mRNA vaccination platform26–28. Our primary analysis was thus post-peak responses (after day 29) to the target (WT Spike) and target-related (Delta, BA.2, BA.5, XBB.1.5, and KP.3) Spikes during this window.

Total IgG levels were first analyzed for rates of change between the collections. The ARCT-154 treatment arm exhibited a sustained total IgG stimulation to target WT Spike in the time interval of day 29 to day 91 (median d > 0), whereas recipients of BNT162B2 displayed a sharp contraction in total IgG to the target antigen (median d < 0). This was statistically significant between the two treatment arms (false-discovery rate, or FDR, corrected p value < 0.05). Subsequent time intervals showed a median d < 0 for both treatment arms, indicating contracting total IgG levels. The d Total IgG at day intervals 91–181 and 181–361 were not statistically significant (Fig. 3A). Interestingly, this same trend was observed for each target-related Spike (Fig. 3B–F). For these antigenically drifted Spike variants, the sa-mRNA ARCT-154 recipients showed a median d Total IgG ≥ 0 in the day 29–91 time interval, indicating that median waning was not occurring for the group until after day 91. This was in contrast to BNT162B2, which showed a d Total IgG < 0 at the day 29–91 time interval, and either further contracted or showed a flat rate of Total IgG levels thereafter. There were no changes in d Total IgG for HA A/Wisconsin/22 or HCMV GB, indicating that non-target, high-exposure antigen responses were neither stimulated nor contracted (Fig. 3G, H). Lastly, no changes were observed for non-target, negative control Ebola GP (Fig. 3I).

The same approach was used for IgG subclasses 1-4. A similar trend for IgG1, IgG2, and IgG4 was observed for the sa-mRNA ARCT-154 recipients with sustained antibody levels through the day 29–91 time interval. Only minor IgG3 rates of change were observed, and they were exclusive to Delta and KP.3 Spike in the day 29–91 time interval (Supplementary Figs.–). These results indicate that sa-mRNA and mRNA vaccinations elicit differing stimulation and decay dynamics for binding antibodies to target (WT Spike) and target-related (Delta, BA.2, BA.5, XBB.1.5, and KP.3) antigens, but have minimal non-target responses. 2 5

Similarly, the derivative plots for the Spike proteins showed discrepancies for activating FcγRIIIA-binding antibodies between the two treatment arms for the target WT Spike (Fig. 4A). Surprisingly, this d FcγRIIIA between the two treatment groups remained statistically significant at the day 91–181 time interval, indicating that the rate of contraction for recipients of ARCT-154 was lower than for BNT162B2 at extended time periods. The two groups both approached d FcγRIIIA WT Spike = 0 at the day 181–361 time interval, with BNT162B2 recipients having a higher d FcγRIIIA WT Spike at that interval (Fig. 4A). Sustained FcγRIIIA-binding levels to target-related Spikes also showed statistically significant differences in durability for recipients of the sa-mRNA ARCT-154 at the day 29–91 interval, and a few even showed statistically significant differences at the day 91–181 interval. These rates eventually flatline at days 181–361 (Fig. 4B–F). There were no changes in d FcγRIIIA-binding antibodies observed in our control antigens, which indicates that there were negligible non-target binding fluctuations occurring (Fig. 4G–I).

Other FcγR-binding antibodies showed differing rates of antibody levels during the observation period. FcγRIIA-binding antibodies showed a trend toward enrichment for ARCT-154 recipients at the day 29–91 interval, with a few Spikes showing statistical significance compared to BNT162B2 recipients, but not nearly to the same degree as FcγRIIIA (Supplementary Fig. 6). FcγRIIB showed a statistically significant enhancement in d for all Spikes at the day 29–91 time interval for ARCT-154 recipients, but not at any other time (Supplementary Fig. 7). Lastly, no differences in d FcγRIIIB-binding antibodies were observed between the two treatment groups (Supplementary Fig. 8). Importantly, there were no changes in d FcγIIA, d FcγRIIB, FcγRIIIA, or d FcγRIIIB for any of our non-target control antigens. These data indicate that the strongly activating FcγRIIIA was disproportionately sustained in recipients of the sa-mRNA vaccine boosted. This response was specific to on-target and related-target Spikes.

IgG levels to target and target-related antigens have different rates of decay based on boosting with an mRNA- or an sa-mRNA-vaccine. Derivatives (rate of change, or) were quantified for the time intervals shown on the x-axis for the two treatment arms (BNT162B2 in red, ARCT-154 in blue). Each dot represents theof Total IgG to WT Spike at the time interval, and the colored horizontal bar indicates the group mean ofTotal IgG WT Spike. A< 0 indicates a negative slope, or contraction; a> 0 indicates a positive slope, or expansion; and a= indicates no change in slope, or sustained response. Statistical comparisons between the two groups were done for each time interval using a Wilcoxon Test followed by a false discovery rate (FDR) adjustment. Above each time interval, n.s. indicates not statistically significant after FDR correction (0.05), * indicates< 0.05 after FDR correction, ** indicates< 0.01 after FDR correction, and *** indicates< 0.001 after FDR correction. Acute phase stimulation comparisons were not performed as this was not a primary endpoint analysis (see Methods).–Same as (), but for variant SARS-CoV-2 Spikes shown at the top of each graph.–Same as (), but for high-exposure control off-target antigens (HA A/Wisc/22 H1N1 and HCMV GB), and for no-exposure control antigens (Ebola GP). d d d d d d p p p p > B F A G I A

Activating FcγRIIIA binding antibody levels to target and target-related antigens have different rates of decay based on boosting with an mRNA- or an sa-mRNA-vaccine. FcγRIIIA-binding antibody levels were quantified for the time intervals shown on the x-axis for the two treatment arms (BNT162B2 in red, ARCT-154 in blue). Each dot represents theof FcγRIIIA-binding antibodies to WT Spike at the time interval, and the colored horizontal bar indicates the group mean ofFcγRIIIA-binding antibodies to WT Spike. A< 0 indicates a negative slope, or contraction; a> 0 indicates a positive slope, or expansion; and a= indicates no change in slope, or sustained response. Statistical comparisons between the two groups were done for each time interval using a Wilcoxon Test followed by a false discovery rate (FDR) adjustment. Above each time interval, n.s. indicates not statistically significant after FDR correction (0.05), * indicates< 0.05 after FDR correction, ** indicates< 0.01 after FDR correction, and *** indicates< 0.001 after FDR correction. Acute phase stimulation comparisons were not performed as this was not a primary endpoint analysis (see Methods).–Same as (), but for variant SARS-CoV-2 Spikes shown at the top of each graph.–Same as (), but for high-exposure control antigens (HA A/Wisc/22 H1N1 and HCMV GB) and for no-exposure control antigens (Ebola GP). d d d d d d p p p p > B F A G I A

Antibody effector functions show a slow waning profile after sa-mRNA boosting

We then profiled the functionality of the humoral response longitudinally over time as Fc-mediated effector functions have been shown to confer protection against SARS-CoV-248–51. Antibody-dependent cellular phagocytosis by primary-derived monocytes (ADCP—see Methods and Supplementary Fig. 9A) to target WT Spike and target-related BA.5 Spike had similar initial responses for the two groups. Baseline values were well above our lower limit of detection since the participants all had previous immunity through vaccination. Both groups showed a waning period from days 181 to 361 post-boost. Although trends to elevated ADCP were observed for recipients of ARCT-154, the two groups’ responses were not statistically significant after FDR correction to WT or BA.5 Spike (Fig. 5A, left and middle). Neither group had any detectable ADCP to our negative exposure control antigen Ebola GP (Fig. 5A, right).

Cellular cytotoxic activity was quantified through an antibody-dependent natural killer cell activation (ADNKA) assay in which percent positivity of degranulation marker CD107a, macrophage inflammatory protein 1 beta (MIP-1β), and pro-inflammatory cytokine interferon gamma (IFN- γ) were measured (Supplementary Fig. 9B). ADNKA activity to the target WT Spike for ARCT-154 recipients showed a significant stimulation at day 29 compared to BNT162B2 recipients for CD107a and MIP-1β. A persistence of the CD107a marker (cellular degranulation) was noted until day 181 for the ARCT-154 treatment arm. A similar trend, albeit not statistically significant after FDR correction, was observed for IFN-γ production in response to target WT Spike exposure. (Fig. 5B, top row). It is important to note that both treatment arms had high pre-existing immunity to the target WT Spike.

We next quantified ADNKA activity to the target-related BA.5 Spike. Here, both treatment arms exhibited a strong acute response for all three ADNKA outputs, indicating that the breadth of responses was increasing, consistent with previously reported observations39,44,52. Similar to other assays, ADNKA responses were relatively sustained in the ARCT-154 treatment arm. For CD107a expression, recipients of ARCT-154 exhibited a significantly higher response to the target-related BA.5 Spike compared to the BNT162B2 recipients for the entire observation period. All three ADNKA markers showed enrichment for ARCT-154 recipients at day 91 post-boost (Fig. 5B, middle row). Lastly, ADNKA responses were quantified to an off-target antigen, Ebolavirus GP. Here, neither treatment arm had detectable baseline ADNKA activity, nor were they stimulated by vaccination at any timepoint (Fig. 5B, bottom row).

Taken together, our functional assays closely tracked with binding antibody profiles for recipients of a BNT162B2 or ARCT-154 booster after receiving three doses of an mRNA vaccine. Notably, ADNKA remained elevated for recipients of the sa-mRNA ARCT-154 booster, which supported the slower decay dynamics of FcγRIIIA-binding antibodies observed. Also, antibody effector functions were specific to SARS-CoV-2 for both treatment arms.

Antibody effector functions to WT and BA.5 Spike are boosted by mRNA and sa-mRNA vaccines, with a sustained phenotype in the latter. Antibody-dependent cellular phagocytosis by monocytes (ADCP) was assayed for the two treatment arms (BNT162B2 in red, ARCT-154 in blue). Shown are group PhagoScore means (y-axis) at each time point (x-axis) along with 95% confidence intervals. ADCP was quantified for target WT Spike (left), target-related BA.5 Spike (middle), and non-target Ebola GP (right).Antibody-dependent natural killer cell activation (ADNKA) was assayed for the two treatment arms (BNT162B2 in red, ARCT-154 in blue) through surface expression of CD107a, macrophage inflammatory protein 1 beta (MIP-1β) expression, and interferon gamma (IFN-γ) expression. Shown are the group percent positivity means (y-axis) at each time point (x-axis) along with 95% confidence intervals. ADNKA was quantified through the three outputs for target WT Spike (top row), target-related BA.5 Spike (middle row), and Ebola GP (bottom row). Above each time point, statistical differences between treatment arms were noted. * indicates< 0.05 after FDR correction, ** indicates< 0.01 after FDR correction, and *** indicates< 0.001 after FDR correction. Shown are the group means (dots) at each time point along with 95% confidence intervals (shaded region). A B p p p

Discussion

Eliciting durable and functional antibody responses is a point of focus for next-generation vaccination strategies and platforms. The development and deployment of mRNA-based vaccines against COVID-19 have ushered in a new era of vaccinations, and understanding how the immune responses shaped by the vaccine can translate to protection. The mRNA-based vaccines showed strong protection against SARS-CoV-2 in clinical trials and in real-world data2–6,53–56. As the virus adapted itself to its new host, variants swept through the population that exhibited increased transmissibility and decreased recognition by neutralizing antibodies, possibly through intrapatient evolution9,10,53,57,58. The evolving antigenic targets of the Spike glycoprotein, coupled with the waning of antibody responses acquired through vaccination or infection, have prompted updates to mRNA-vaccine technology. This has come in the form of updating the Spike open reading frame encoded in the mRNA21–23,59, as well as encoding an RNA-dependent RNA polymerase as a separate open reading frame to self-amplify the mRNA and increase production of the Spike24–28.

Neutralizing antibodies are a key correlate of protection against SARS-CoV-27 and were therefore assessed as the primary immunogenicity outcome parameter in the primary study. Results from the primary study showed that a self-amplifying mRNA (sa-mRNA) vaccine could increase the magnitude of neutralizing response and enhance the durability of neutralizing antibodies26–28. Antibody effector functions have also been shown to exert protection, particularly against antigenically diverged Spikes like the Omicron lineage40,50, and are recalled upon infection42,49. The goal of this research study was to interrogate whether a sa-mRNA vaccine could elicit a sustained and activating antibody response within a population where responses could be recalled.

We found that the sa-mRNA ARCT-154 elicited a longitudinally unique humoral profile to target (WT Spike) and to target-related Spikes, including highly diverged Omicron sublineages. This antibody response was characterized by a sustained FcγRIIIA-binding signature, which translated to an enhanced antibody-dependent natural killer cell activation (ADNKA, also referred to as antibody-dependent cellular cytotoxicity, or ADCC). These ADNKA/ADCC responses have been linked to FcγRIIIA (also known as CD16a) engagement, and ADNKA has been previously reported as a predictor of protection against respiratory pathogens29,32,35,60. Future studies further characterizing how ADNKA/ADCC leveraged antibodies, either stimulated by vaccinations or provided by monoclonal antibody treatments, drive protection against respiratory pathogens are warranted.

The sustained abundance of Spike-specific antibodies elicited by ARCT-154 was notable, and while antibody profiles between the two treatment arms observed in this research study showed synchronization towards one year after boost, significant changes in rates of decay and overall humoral profiles were noted between peak responses and the end of the observation period. This supports the model that a sustained production of antigen through a sa-mRNA platform influences immune response dynamics. Additionally, our results may further support a model whereby sustained antigen stimulation shifts antibody networks as a whole, similar to what is observed in hybrid-immune profiles42,61–67. Future studies on how a sa-mRNA vaccine response compares to mRNA-vaccine and hybrid-immune profiles would seem warranted.

One limitation of this research study is that it compared immune profiles of previously vaccinated participants, and we could not directly compare foundational immune profiles established by a sa-mRNA vaccine with a conventional mRNA vaccine. Separately, spacing between sampling times, particularly for later intervals, resulted in our using averaged rates of change between time points to establish vaccine dynamics. This kept us from parsing more narrowly-defined windows for peak and waned responses. It is entirely possible that peak responses to BNT162B2 boosting were before the first draw at day 29, which could have implications for our rate of change modeling and interpretations. Multivariate models could distinguish between the two vaccine arms; however, these models’ performance could not be validated by an independent cohort and are limited by the number of participants analyzed at each time point. Future studies comparing distinct vaccine boosters with matched, longitudinal samples would greatly benefit from increased sample size and, if possible, independent validation cohorts.

Another limitation of this research study is the influence of potential immunological imprinting from prior natural SARS-CoV-2 infections. To mitigate this, we sought to obtain a homogeneous population representing vaccine-induced immunity only. All participants received 3 doses of ancestral mRNA vaccines, were anti-nucleocapsid (anti-N) antibody negative at the time of vaccine administration, and remained anti-N seronegative through all follow-up timepoints (previously reported in ref. 26). Furthermore, no participants in this subset were diagnosed with COVID-19 or had a positive SARS-CoV-2 test during the study period. While we acknowledge that anti-N antibodies can be transient and may not definitively exclude all prior exposures, these rigorous selection measures likely minimized the risk of imprinting-related bias in our findings. Lastly, this study was focused on antibody responses generated by the mRNA vaccines ARCT-154 and BNT162b2 against SARS-CoV-2. The ARCT-154 vaccine encodes for non-structural proteins (nSP) to facilitate the self-amplification of the antigen target-encoding mRNA (ie. the replicase complex). The assessment of humoral and cell-mediated immunity against nSPs of the Venezuelan Equine Encephalitis virus was outside of this research.

Methods

Study design

The primary study was a double-blind, multicenter, randomized, controlled, phase 3, non-inferiority trial, conducted at 11 outpatient clinical sites in Japan (the Japan Registry for Clinical Trials, jRCT 2071220080). It enrolled healthy adults aged at least 18 years who had previously been immunized with two doses of an mRNA COVID-19 vaccine (BNT162B2 [Comirnaty, Pfizer/BioNTech] or mRNA-1273 [Spikevax; Moderna]) followed by a third dose of BNT162B2 at least 3 months before enrollment. The original study protocol was approved by the institutional review boards (IRB) at all participating sites. The study was conducted in accordance with the ethical principles outlined in the Declaration of Helsinki and Good Clinical Practice guidelines. The results for primary and secondary endpoints have been published previously26–28. The multi-center study was approved by the Hakata Clinic IRB (Fukuoka, site name Hakata CL), IRB of Shinanozaka Clinic (Tokyo, site name Shinanozaka CL), P-One Clinic Keikokai Medical Corp IRB (Tokyo, site names Higashi-Shinjuku CL and P-One CL), Medical Corporation Heishinkai OPHAC Hospital IRB (Osaka and Tokyo, site names Osaka Pharmacology Clinical Research Hospital and ToCROM), Kobori Central Clinical Research Ethics Committee IRB (Hokkaido, Kanagawa, and Kumamoto, site names Shin-Sapporo HP, LUNA, and Medimessee Sakurajyuji, respectively), Fukushima Medical University Hospital IRB (Fukushima, site name Fukushima Medical HP), and the Juntendo University Hospital IRB (Tokyo, site name Juntendo HP).

All participants provided informed consent and agreed to comply with the study requirements, including attendance at all study visits, provision of blood samples, and use of approved contraception from 28 days before study vaccination through the end of the study duration. Detailed inclusion and exclusion are described in the primary study publication26. For this post-hoc research, we randomly selected two subsets comprising 30 participants from each vaccine group (ARCT-154 and BNT162B2, total n = 60) who were seronegative at baseline and all subsequent analysis timepoints for SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid protein, which is an indicator of recent SARS-CoV-2 infection68, and had samples available at days 1, 29, 91, 181, and 361. Samples were de-identified and processed in a blinded manner. A sample size of 30 participants per group is deemed adequate to assess potential differences in humoral immune responses between the two vaccine groups. This post-hoc testing and analysis were determined as not meeting human subjects research as determined by the Harvard IRB. All measurements were obtained from prealiquoted samples from each participant at each timepoint in each group.

This project was determined as not human subjects research by the Harvard IRB (IRB24-1684). The clinical trial number for the Phase III trial is jRCT2071220080 registered on December 16, 2022.

Antibody isotype and Fc-receptor binding

Antigen-specific antibody subclass/isotype levels and Fc-gamma receptor (FcγR) binding profiles were measured using a custom multiplex Luminex assay, as previously described69–71. Carboxylated Luminex MagPlex microspheres (DiaSorin) were covalently linked to target antigens via NHS-ester linkages by the addition of EDC and Sulfo-NHS (Thermo Fisher). Immune complex formation between serum samples diluted in 1X PBS (1:500 for Total IgG, IgG1, and IgG2; 1:250 for IgG3, IgG4, IgA1, and IgM; 1:2000 for FcγRIIA, FcγRIIB, FcγRIIIA, and FcγRIIIB) and the antigen-coupled microspheres occurred overnight at 4 °C in 384-well plates, shaken at 750 rpm in 1X Assay Buffer (1X PBS, pH = 7.4, 0.1% BSA, 0.02% Tween-20). After immune complex formation, the plates were washed with 1X Assay Buffer. Ig isotypes and subclasses were detected with diluted Phycoerythrin (PE)-conjugated secondary antibodies (SouthernBiotech, see Supplementary Table 1) for 1 h at room temperature. Complexes were then washed with 1X Assay Buffer for three washes and resuspended in 1X Luminex Sheath Buffer.

FcγR-binding antibodies were detected by Avi-tagged human FcγRs (Duke Human Vaccine Institute), which were biotinylated and coupled to Streptavidin-PE (Agilent Technologies). The Strep-PE-FcγRs were incubated with the immune complexes for 1 h at room temperature in 1X Assay Buffer. Complexes were then washed with 1X Assay Buffer three times and resuspended in 1X Luminex Sheath Buffer.

All binding measurements were done using the xMAP Intelliflex (Luminex) with readouts as median fluorescence intensity (MFI) and reported in arbitrary units (AU). All samples were run in duplicate, and the means of the technical replicates were reported.

Antibody-dependent cellular phagocytosis by monocytes

Human monocytes were obtained from leukopacks (StemCell). The leukopacks were initially processed for red blood cell depletion through the EasySep RBC Depletion Reagent (StemCell). This involved adding EDTA and diluting the Leukopacks at a 1:1 ratio with EasySep Buffer (StemCell). The diluted Leukopacks then underwent a series of magnetic separations with the addition of RBC Depletion Reagent (StemCell). The cells are spun down and washed using EasySep Buffer (StemCell). Total cells were then counted using the Cell Countess, and a total of 5 × 10^5 cells/well were seeded onto a 96-well round-bottomed plated with R10 media (RPMI-1640 (Sigma-Aldrich) supplemented with 10% fetal bovine serum (FBS) (Sigma-Aldrich), 5% penicillin/streptomycin (Corning, 50 μg/mL), 5% L-glutamine (Corning, 4 mM), 5% HEPES buffer (pH 7.2) (Corning, 50 mM)).

Antigen target proteins were biotinylated using the EZ-link Sulfo-NHS-LC-LC-Biotin kit (Thermo Fisher). The biotinylated antigens were then coupled to neutravidin beads (Thermo Fisher, F8776). Next, the bead-antigen conjugates were incubated with 1:100 diluted serum overnight at 4 °C to form immune complexes. The unbounded antibodies were removed using a wash buffer (1x PBS). The immune complexes were then incubated with PBMCs for 1.5 h at 37 °C and 5% CO2. The cells were then stained with CD14 Pacific blue antibody cocktail at a 1:100 dilution and incubated for 30 min in the dark at room temperature. The stained cells were subsequently washed and fixed in 4% paraformaldehyde (PFA). The cells are washed a final time and resuspended in 1X PBS. The antigen-specific PhagoScore was determined as (% cells positive × Median Fluorescent Intensity of positive cells). Flow cytometry was performed with an iQue (IntelliCyt) instrument, and population measurements were conducted using IntelliCyt ForeCyt (v8.1). The reagents and materials used are listed in Supplementary Table, and the gating for ADCP is shown in Supplementary Fig.. 1 9A

Antibody-dependent natural killer cell (NK) activation (ADNKA)

Human natural killer (NK) cells were isolated from leukopacks (StemCell). The NK cells were enriched from the leukopacks using the EasySep Human NK Cell Isolation Kit. This is a negative selection procedure where unwanted cells are labeled with antibody complexes and magnetic rapidspheres (StemCell). The unwanted magnetically tagged cells are then separated from the desired NK cells through a series of separations using the EasySep magnets (StemCell). Donors were anonymized. Cell concentration and viability was quantified on the Cell Countess. NK cells were resuspended in RPMI-1640 (Sigma-Aldrich) supplemented with 10% fetal bovine serum (FBS) (Sigma-Aldrich), 5% penicillin/streptomycin (Corning, 50 μg/mL), 5% L-glutamine (Corning, 4 mM), 5% HEPES buffer (pH 7.2) (Corning, 50 mM) in 96-well plates. The NK cells were activated overnight with the addition of 1 ng/mL IL-15 (StemCell Technologies) at 37 °C and 5% CO2.

ELISA plates were coated with 3 μg/mL of target antigen and incubated for 2 h at 37 °C. The coated plates were then washed with PBS and blocked with blocking buffer consisting of 5% bovine serum albumin (BSA) in 1X PBS, pH = 7.4, for 1 h at room temperature. The ELISA plates were washed with PBS, and 1:80 diluted serum samples were added to the plates to form immune complexes overnight at 4 °C. After another wash, NK cells at a concentration of 5 × 10^5 in R10 media supplemented with anti-CD107a–phycoerythrin (PE)–Cy5 (BD Biosciences), brefeldin A (5 μg/mL) (Sigma-Aldrich), and GolgiStop (BD Biosciences) was added to the plates. The NK cells were incubated with immune complexes for 5 hours at 37 °C and 5% CO2. The incubated NK cells were subsequently washed and stained for cell surface markers with anti-CD3 Pacific Blue (BD Biosciences), anti-CD16 allophycocyanin (APC)-Cy5 (BD Biosciences), and anti-CD56 PE-Cy7 (BD Biosciences) for 20 min at room temperature. The washed NK cells were then fixed with PermA (Life Technologies) for another 15 minute. The cells were washed once more and then permeabilized with PermB (Life Technologies) supplemented with anti-MIP-1β PE (BD Biosciences) and anti-IFNγ FITC for 20 min at room temperature. Fluorescent intensity was measured using the iQue Cytometer (Intellicyt). NK cells were gated as CD56 + /CD16 + /CD3-. NK activation was evaluated as the percentage of NK cells positive for CD107a, IFNγ, or MIP-1β. All assays were performed with at least two healthy donors with one male and one female. All reagents and materials used are listed in Supplementary Table, and the gating strategy for ADNKA is shown in Supplementary Fig.. 1 9B

All antibody effector function assays were quantified for statistical significance between groups (BNT162B2 and ARCT-154) using a two-sided Wilcoxon Test followed by a false discovery rate adjustment.

Rates of change analysis

The rate of change was calculated based on the difference of the MFI within a certain period of time, as shown here:. The calculation of the rate of change was paired based on the subjects; if there was no participant on certain timepoint, the data point for the time interval was not included in quantifying the group median or comparisons across groups. A two-sided Wilcoxon Test followed by a false discovery rate adjustment was used for all statistical comparisons. Rate = Δ MFI timepoint timepoint 2 1 − Δ Timepoint Days

Multivariate analysis

A partial least squares discriminant analysis (PLSDA) was used to identify features separating vaccine arms post vaccination on day 1 (baseline), 29, 91, 181, and 361. Initially, all data were background subtracted, log 10 transformed, and scaled through z-scoring. Data were split into 5 folds, and a least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) was used to identify the minimal features required to explain separation using 4 of the folds; the 1 withheld fold was used to test the LASSO penalty (λ). This cross-validation process was repeated 5 times to identify the best-performing λ, which was then fit into the final LASSO model. This process was repeated 100 times. Features were selected for as being present in at >80% of the 100 iterations. This regularization and downselection of the humoral features was used as a way to prevent statistical overfitting, given the coordinated nature of antibody responses46, particularly for a cohort with existing immunity. The LASSO-selected datasets were then used to train the PLSDA. The LASSO-selected features were projected onto latent variables 1 (LV1) and LV2 (Supplementary Fig. 1).

For cross-validations, a separate script was run with the first stage being the same as above in building the LASSO using five internal folds of the data. This dataset was used to train the PLSDA and predict accuracy, ranging from 0 to 1, where 1 indicates 100% model accuracy. This model was then compared to one set of randomly selected features, in our case, 30 random features, per cross-validation. The randomly selected features were then used to train the PLSDA and predict the accuracy of the model, again represented from 0 to 1. A separate comparison was made using permuted (shuffled) labels. Here, the permuted labels were used to train the LASSO, with a total of 30 label permutations per cross-validation, and an internal 5-fold cross-validation to train the LASSO and PLSDA. The resulting model accuracy was represented from 0 to 1.

Model performance (original data, random features, and permuted labels) was compared using an exact p-value obtained for model comparison through the tail probability of the null distribution. This approach has been previously validated elsewhere46,47,67,72.

Supplementary information

Acknowledgements

The samples used in this research were obtained from the ARCT-154-J01 study conducted by Meiji Seika Pharma. Shinanozaka CL, (Shinjuku, Japan), Hiroaki Kondo (Higashi-Shinanozaka CL, Shinjuku, Japan), Kenichi Furihata (P-One CL, Hachioji, Japan), Hidetoshi Furuie (Osaka Pharmacology Clinical Research Hospital, Osaka, Japan), Osamu Matsuoka (ToCROM, Shinjuku, Japan), Shinya Mitsui (Shin-Sapporo HP, Sapporo, Japan), Yuki Sekiguchi (LUNA, Yokohama, Japan), Shokei Kim-Mitsuyama (Medimesse Sakurajyuji, Kumamoto, Japan), Masao Kobayakawa (Fukishima Medical HP, Fukushima, Japan), and Toshio Naito (Juntendo, Bunkyo, Japan) for their contributions to the study. This work was supported by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation INV-080712. R.P.M. has also received support from the Gates Global Health Discovery Collaboratory. The funders played no role in the study design, data collection, analysis and interpretations of the data, or the writing of this manuscript.

Author contributions

Conceptualization: R.P.M., I.S., and R.S. Methodology: K.S.L., R.B., Q.W., and R.P.M. Software: Q.W. and R.P.M. Validation: Q.W. and R.P.M. Formal Analysis: K.S.L., R.B., Q.W., R.P.M., H.J., C.V., and I.S. Investigation: All authors Resources: R.P.M., C.V., and B.S. Data Curation: K.S.L., R.B., H.M., Q.W., and R.P.M. Writing: All authors Visualization: Q.W. and R.P.M. Supervision: Q.W., R.P.M., B.S., and I.S. Project Administration: H.M. and S.L. Funding Acquisition: R.P.M., B.S., and I.S.

Data availability

Raw data used for this paper has been deposited on the HSPH Systems Serology GitHub page under the accession number QW20251028 (https://github.com/HSPHSystemsSerology/QW20251028). No unique code was generated for this study. All data generated or analyzed during this study are included in this article.

Code availability

No previously unreported code or scripts was used to generate results in the manuscript. All coding was done in R Studio V. 2023.06.0.

Competing interests

R.P.M. serves as a consultant to the International Vaccine Institute (IVI). R.S., H.J., S.L., C.V., B.S., and I.S. are full-time employees of Arcturus Therapeutics; the company developed the sa-mRNA ARCT-154 vaccine. The other authors do not have a competing interest.

Footnotes

Contributor Information

Igor Smolenov, Email: igor.smolenov@arcturusrx.com.

Ryan P. McNamara, Email: rmcnamara@hsph.harvard.edu

Supplementary information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1038/s41541-026-01431-x.

References

Associated Data

Supplementary Materials

Data Availability Statement

Raw data used for this paper has been deposited on the HSPH Systems Serology GitHub page under the accession number QW20251028 (https://github.com/HSPHSystemsSerology/QW20251028). No unique code was generated for this study. All data generated or analyzed during this study are included in this article.

No previously unreported code or scripts was used to generate results in the manuscript. All coding was done in R Studio V. 2023.06.0.

Funding

Competing interests

Competing interests: R.P.M. serves as a consultant to the International Vaccine Institute (IVI). R.S., H.J., S.L., C.V., B.S., and I.S. are full-time employees of Arcturus Therapeutics; the company developed the sa-mRNA ARCT-154 vaccine. The other authors do not have a competing interest.
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