Diabetes & vascular disease researchSep 5, 2025

Number of U.S. adults with type 2 diabetes who could benefit from semaglutide to prevent heart disease

GLP-1 Therapies Weekly Brief ↗PubMed ↗DOI ↗OA ↗

Updated Jun 27, 2026

Abstract

Essence

Applying SUSTAIN-6 criteria to U.S. survey data suggests semaglutide could prevent substantial cardiovascular events among eligible adults with type 2 diabetes.

Evidence

This modeling analysis used NHANES 2011-2020 adults with type 2 diabetes, projected 6.9 million SUSTAIN-6-eligible U.S. adults, and applied published SUSTAIN-6 event rates to estimate annual preventable events including 75,681 primary outcomes.

Caveat

The estimates depend on trial event rates applied to a U.S. survey population that differed from SUSTAIN-6, including more female and Black patients, shorter diabetes duration, and less prior CVD.

Simplified

BackgroundThe SUSTAIN-6 trial showed the (CVD) benefits of semaglutide among patients with (T2DM). We estimated the US population eligibility and preventable CVD events from semaglutide.MethodsUS adults with T2DM were selected from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2011-2020 based on SUSTAIN-6 eligibility criteria. We estimated composite and secondary CVD events from SUSTAIN-6 treated and placebo published event rates multiplied by the weighted US eligible population, the difference being the number of preventable events which was then divided by 2.1 years to provide annualized estimates.ResultsAmong 4755 (projected to 33.6 million [M]) adults with T2DM, 1132 (6.9 million) fit SUSTAIN-6 criteria. Compared to SUSTAIN-6, our sample more likely had female and black patients, shorter diabetes duration, and was less likely with prior CVD. We estimated 75,681 primary outcome CVD events, 128,329 expanded composite CVD events, 72,390 combined nonfatal MI, nonfatal stroke, and all-cause deaths, 36,195 non-fatal stroke events, 85,552 revascularizations, and 75,681 cases of nephropathy could be prevented annually if eligible T2DM subjects were on semaglutide.ConclusionSemaglutide may prevent over 75,000 CVD events annually if provided to eligible T2DM US adults. Efforts to improve use of these therapies are needed.

Key numbers

6.9 million

Eligible US Adults with

Projected number of adults meeting criteria.

75,681

Preventable Primary Composite Events

Estimated annual preventable events if treated with semaglutide.

58,000

Preventable Events in Males

Estimated annual preventable events for males compared to females.

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Funding

Competing interests

33%of authors

1 of 3

authors report competing interests

2 report none

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Number of U.S. adults with type 2 diabetes who could benefit from semaglutide to prevent heart disease

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