Tirzepatide and the 10‐year predicted risk of cardiovascular disease and type 2 diabetes in adults with obesity and prediabetes: A post hoc analysis from the three‐year SURMOUNT ‐1 trial

Sep 29, 2025Diabetes, obesity & metabolism

Tirzepatide and 10-year risk of heart disease and type 2 diabetes in adults with obesity and prediabetes: Analysis from a three-year trial

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Abstract

Tirzepatide treatment was associated with greater reductions in the 10-year predicted risk of cardiovascular disease and type 2 diabetes compared to placebo.

  • Mean percent change in predicted risk scores decreased significantly for tirzepatide (5 mg: -4.6%; 10 mg: -7.5%; 15 mg: -9.2%) compared to an increase in placebo (57.9%).
  • Predicted ASCVD risk reductions were confirmed using both the ACC/AHA and PREVENT risk equations, all showing p < 0.0001.
  • Mean absolute changes in risk scores were also more favorable in tirzepatide-treated groups (5 mg: -17.0%; 10 mg: -19.6%; 15 mg: -19.5%) versus a decrease in placebo (-4.3%, p < 0.0001).
  • These findings suggest that tirzepatide may lower long-term health risks associated with obesity and prediabetes.

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Key numbers

-9.2%
Risk Reduction
Mean percent change in risk score for 15 mg tirzepatide at week 176.
-19.6%
Risk Reduction
Mean absolute change in risk score for 10 mg tirzepatide at week 176.
57.9%
Placebo Risk Increase
Percent change in risk score for placebo at week 176.

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