Cancer epidemiologyMay 25, 2025

Predicted effects of weight loss from GLP-1 receptor drugs on 22 cancers over the next ten years in the UK

GLP-1 Therapies Weekly Brief ↗PubMed ↗DOI ↗

Updated Jan 20, 2026

Abstract

A simulated reduction of 21,443 cumulative cancer cases over 10 years was projected if GLP-1 receptor agonists were made available to all people with obesity.

GLP-1 receptor agonists may lead to significant weight loss, which is associated with a decrease in cancer incidence.
Making GLP-1 receptor agonists available to all individuals with obesity (BMI > 30) could potentially lower cancer cases more than restricting access to those with severe obesity (BMI > 35).
If 50% of individuals with obesity moved into a lower BMI category, the model predicts a reduction of 21,443 cancer cases over a decade.
In the scenario where access is limited to those with severe obesity, a 50% reduction in BMI could lead to a decrease of 7,476 cancer cases.
The anticipated reductions in cancer cases are particularly notable for uterine, kidney, liver, and colon cancers.

Simplified

BACKGROUND: Obesity is a major risk factor for many cancers. Glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1RA) have emerged as highly effective agents for weight loss. There is a lack of published modelling studies describing the broader implications of GLP-1RA-induced weight loss on cancer incidence.

METHODS: A Markov state-transition model was devised to evaluate the impact of GLP-1RA-induced weight loss on future cancer incidence in adults. Contemporary data on weight distribution, cancer incidence, and body mass index (BMI)-associated cancer risk were integrated into the model. Two scenarios were assessed, GLP-1RAs were made available to all people with obesity (BMI>30) or only those with severe obesity (BMI>35). New cancer cases were simulated over a decade.

RESULTS: Our simulation within a closed cohort indicated that GLP-1RA-induced weight loss would lead to a marked decrease in cancer cases over 10 years in adults. If GLP-1RAs were made available for all people with obesity and 50 % of people with obesity moved into a lower BMI category, there was a simulated reduction in cumulative cancer cases of 21,443. If access to GLP-1RAs was restricted to people with severe obesity and 50 % of people with severe obesity moved into a lower BMI category, there was a simulated reduction in cumulative cancer cases of 7476. This effect was greatest for uterine, kidney, liver and colon cancer.

CONCLUSION: Targeted weight control measures using GLP-1RAs could reduce new cancer cases. Based on our models, the potential risk of thyroid cancer is balanced by a reduction in other cancer types. This modelling study shows for the first time that implementing effective weight loss programmes could enhance the health of the population over the next decade through a reduction in cancer cases.

Full Text

Full text is available at the source.

View Full Text ↗

Funding

Competing interests

Declaration of competing interest TR has received travel support from Novartis, MSD, Daiichi-Sankyo; speaker fees from Novartis; institutional grant funding from Debiopharm, Gilead; direct funding from MedSIR and is a clinical expert on the NICE Breast Cancer Guidelines committee. CT has done consulting work for Eli Lilly.

PubMed

Predicted effects of weight loss from GLP-1 receptor drugs on 22 cancers over the next ten years in the UK

Abstract

Full Text

Funding

Competing interests

You found one interesting study. We’ll send the next 7.

What Lands in Your Inbox Each Week:

Recent issues from the glp-1 therapies brief

Abstract

Full Text

Funding

Competing interests

Related papers

You found one interesting study. We’ll send the next 7.

What Lands in Your Inbox Each Week:

Recent issues from the glp-1 therapies brief