BACKGROUND: Psychotherapies, such as cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT), currently have the strongest evidence of durable symptom changes for most psychological disorders, such as anxiety disorders. Nevertheless, only about half of individuals treated with CBT benefit from it. Predictive algorithms, including digital assessments and passive sensing features, could better identify patients who would benefit from CBT, and thus, improve treatment choices.
OBJECTIVE: This study aims to establish predictive features that forecast responses to transdiagnostic CBT in anxiety disorders and to investigate key mechanisms underlying treatment responses.
METHODS: This study is a 2-armed randomized controlled clinical trial. We include patients with anxiety disorders who are randomized to either a transdiagnostic CBT group or a waitlist (referred to as WAIT). We index key features to predict responses prior to starting treatment using subjective self-report questionnaires, experimental tasks, biological samples, ecological momentary assessments, activity tracking, and smartphone-based passive sensing to derive a multimodal feature set for predictive modeling. Additional assessments take place weekly at mid- and posttreatment and at 6- and 12-month follow-ups to index anxiety and depression symptom severity. We aim to include 150 patients, randomized to CBT versus WAIT at a 3:1 ratio. The data set will be subject to full feature and important features selected by minimal redundancy and maximal relevance feature selection and then fed into machine leaning models, including eXtreme gradient boosting, pattern recognition network, and k-nearest neighbors to forecast treatment response. The performance of the developed models will be evaluated. In addition to predictive modeling, we will test specific mechanistic hypotheses (eg, association between self-efficacy, daily symptoms obtained using ecological momentary assessments, and treatment response) to elucidate mechanisms underlying treatment response.
RESULTS: The trial is now completed. It was approved by the Cantonal Ethics Committee, Zurich. The results will be disseminated through publications in scientific peer-reviewed journals and conference presentations.
CONCLUSIONS: The aim of this trial is to improve current CBT treatment by precise forecasting of treatment response and by understanding and potentially augmenting underpinning mechanisms and personalizing treatment.
TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03945617; https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/results/NCT03945617.
INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID): DERR1-10.2196/42547.
