OBJECTIVE: To compare 1-year changes in estimated 10-year and lifetime atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk following metabolic and bariatric surgery (MBS) versus glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonist (GLP-1RA) therapy among adults with obesity.
SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA: Obesity is a major driver of ASCVD through adverse metabolic and inflammatory pathways. Metabolic and bariatric surgery and GLP-1 receptor agonists represent the most effective contemporary treatments for obesity and are increasingly used to mitigate cardiovascular risk. However, their comparative effects on integrated short-term and lifetime ASCVD risk in real-world clinical practice remain incompletely characterized.
METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of adults with obesity (body mass index ≥30 kg/m²) who underwent MBS or initiated GLP-1RA therapy between 2020 and 2023 within a large tertiary health care system in the United States. Participants were identified from electronic health records and followed for 12 months. Primary outcomes were 1-year changes in estimated 10-year and lifetime ASCVD risk. Secondary outcomes included percent total body weight loss, blood pressure, and lipid parameters. Multivariable linear regression models were used to adjust for baseline body mass index and baseline ASCVD risk.
RESULTS: The final cohort included 812 patients, of whom 579 underwent MBS and 233 initiated GLP-1RA therapy. At baseline, patients receiving GLP-1RAs were older and had higher estimated ASCVD risk. At 1 year, reductions in 10-year ASCVD risk were similar between groups (-0.8% vs. -1.1%; P=.36). In contrast, lifetime ASCVD risk decreased significantly more following MBS than GLP-1RA therapy (-8.6% vs. -1.7%; P<.001). MBS was associated with greater percent total body weight loss (-27.8% vs. -11.1%; P<.001) and more favorable lipid changes, including larger reductions in low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and greater increases in high-density lipoprotein cholesterol. After adjustment, MBS remained independently associated with a greater reduction in lifetime ASCVD risk compared with GLP-1RA therapy (β -6.92; 95% CI -9.22 to -4.62).
CONCLUSIONS: In this real-world cohort, both MBS and GLP-1RA therapy were associated with improvements in estimated cardiovascular risk, but MBS conferred substantially greater reductions in lifetime ASCVD risk, accompanied by superior weight loss and lipid improvements. These findings highlight the complementary roles of surgical and pharmacologic therapies in obesity management and may inform strategies to optimize long-term cardiovascular risk reduction.
